Organizational Unit:
Defense Analysis (DA)

Series

Defense Analysis Department Student Research Posters

Date Established

2006

Description

The mission of the Defense Analysis Department is to arm select US and international military professionals and interagency personnel with the critical thinking skills and specialized knowledge that they will need for waging and prevailing in the complex conflicts under way — and those to come.

Type

Department

Website of the organization

https://nps.edu/web/da

Full item page

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 566

Analyzing Naval Special Warfare's Role in the Kill Chain
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2025-03-31) Blanken, Leo; Naval Research Program (NRP); Defense Analysis (DA)
This work provides analysis to inform future force design for Naval Special Warfare with reference to changes in mission sets and potential capabilities. More specifically, the work considers the challenge of how Naval Special Warfare may leverage unmanned and increasingly autonomous systems to play a role in the kill chain. The methods used range from design challenges for integrating new technologies, qualitative analysis of organizational and bureaucratic challenges, as well as formal system dynamics modeling to weigh the comparative statics of various investments and configurations of forces and technologies. We find that the challenges surrounding these topics extend broadly and need to be viewed with a wider aperture to enable effective future force design.
READ @your library Heather Gregg (poster)
(Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2014) Gregg, Heather; Dudley Knox Library; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Defense Analysis (DA); Kerno, Karen
LEADERS COME LAST: THE ENVIRONMENT, FOLLOWERS, LEADERS SPECIAL FORCES LEADERSHIP MAP
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2025-12) Bilyeu, Ryan A.; Ritter, Jonathan D.; Naficy, Siamak T.; Defense Analysis (DA); Burks, Robert E.
Within Army Special Operations Forces (SOF), specifically Army Special Forces (SF), individuals are specially selected and trained to fight and win in ambiguous or denied environments to compete irregularly on the conflict continuum before or to prevent large-scale combat. Currently, the Army’s leadership model is known as Be, Know, Do, with the implementation method known as Mission Command. The Army’s current leadership model is overly simplistic when applied to SF and misses many nuances of modern leadership practice. Because of SF’s extenuating circumstances, the SF regiment must supplement the current Army leadership models and better integrate them into the implementation method. Examinations of classic and current leadership theories and appropriate problem-solving concepts illuminate opportunities to supplement SOF leadership doctrine. This thesis proposes a model coined the Environment, Followers, Leaders (EFL) Special Forces Leadership Map. The EFL Map argues that analyzing the leadership environment and followers will determine which leadership strategies the leader must implement to accomplish the mission while caring for their followers. Finally, this thesis recommends updates to Army doctrine to delineate SF leadership models and to allow separate development methods, which are necessary to maximize SF’s effectiveness.
Why failing terrorist groups persist revisited: a social network approach to AQIM network resilience
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2017-12) Baker, Tyler D.; Everton, Sean; Defense Analysis (DA); Cunningham, Daniel
To date, most analyses of the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) network have focused on qualitative analysis to determine trends and patterns in the group's evolution over time. Seldom has a combination of quantitative tools been used to derive inferences about the nature of the organization and its changing strategy. In this paper, the author draws on a combination of geospatial analysis and social network analysis in order to explore how the network has changed over time in response to efforts from local and international security forces to disrupt it. The analysis enables the community of interest to draw conclusions with regard to the resiliency of the network and its long-term goals in the Sahel region. Evidence indicates that AQIM is evolving into a less dense but more ethnically diverse organization that is rapidly restoring the operational capacity it lost during the 2013 French intervention in Mali. Despite major Western military efforts to suppress it, AQIM is increasingly able to conduct spectacular attacks across west Africa, further destabilizing an already precarious security environment. The thesis concludes with recommendations for crafting a strategy tailored to degrading and containing the threat from AQIM and its affiliates.
The Role Of USSOF in Preventing North Korea from Becoming the Next A.Q. Khan
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-12) Youngmin, Major; Volpe, Tristan; Tullius, John; Graduate School of Operational and Information Sciences (GSOIS); Defense Analysis (DA)
STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY TO VIOLENT SOCIAL MOVEMENTS IN GUATEMALA
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2025-06) Orozco Lopez, Juan Pablo; Everton, Sean F.; Defense Analysis (DA); Rice, Ian C.
This thesis examines the structural vulnerability of Guatemala to the potential emergence of violent social movements. Using a mixed-method approach—event-history (survival) analysis and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)—the study analyzes 91 insurgent movements across 19 Latin American countries. It identifies six key factors that influence insurgent success: access to natural resources, government corruption, life expectancy, education level, electoral integrity, and group origin. The results show that violent mobilizations are rarely driven by grievances alone. Instead, specific configurations of enabling conditions—such as high corruption, low life expectancy, weak electoral systems, and resource access—consistently appear in victorious insurgencies. Guatemala currently exhibits several of these risk factors, including a high corruption score, low defense spending, declining human development indicators, and limited state territorial control. The thesis argues that these structural conditions mirror those present in historical insurgencies and may catalyze renewed violent mobilization. It recommends incorporating predictive modeling into intelligence workflows, increasing state presence in rural regions, and using sociopolitical indicators to guide counterinsurgency strategies. The study offers strategic value for policymakers and military planners by operationalizing social movement theory and identifying early warning signs that can inform preventive interventions.
MARSOC SOF-MAGTF Capabilities Integrations Analysis and Operational Modeling of SSR
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-10-12) Burks, Rob; Appleget, Jeff; Naval Research Program (NRP); Defense Analysis (DA); Operations Research (OR)
This research is a continuation of the Special Operations Forces Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) Capabilities Integrations Analysis and Operational Modeling work started in 2022 (Burks & Appleget, 2022). It also supports ongoing NPS efforts examining Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO) and the potential of United States Marine Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC) forces serving as a bridge for capabilities integration between Special Operations Forces (SOF) and deployed MAGTF. This effort examined the MARSOC Strategic Shaping and Reconnaissance (SSR) operating concept and how various SOF force structures can best support the EABO concept for 21st Century warfighting in the contact, blunt, and surge layers of competition and conflict. This research examines SSR activities across the spectrum of cooperation and competition and how SSR activities can augment and support deterrence and prevention in a South China Sea conflict scenario in the Contact Layer. The research leveraged the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Warfare Innovation Continuum (WIC) and multiple Joint Campaign Analysis (JCA) and Wargaming Applications courses to develop its insights. The focus of this effort was to explore how MARSOC can operationalize SSR to achieve effects in competition while postured to transition to conflict. The effort was based on an exchange of ideas between MARSOC and NPS researchers to better understand SSR operational concepts and Marine Raider Detachments (MRD) operations; it identified three critical MARSOC issues for exploration. The research identified potential SOF force structures that best supports strategic shaping and reconnaissance missions in a non-kinetic environment.
An examination of overt offensive military operations outside of combat zones
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2006-12) Basha, Lawrence O.; Gustaitis, Peter J.; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Defense Analysis (DA); Russell, James
Under the leadership of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), the military is undergoing transformation to more effectively counter the asymmetric threat of non-state terrorists and extremists in the "long war." After five years, however, one component of national security strategy is visibly unfulfilled: military pursuit of terrorists and extremists outside of Afghanistan and Iraq. The lack of offensive military efforts outside of areas designated as combat zones creates the impression that the long war has stalled. Overt offensive military operations targeting non-state actors may advance the counterterrorism mission and serve as a deterrent. This thesis identifies and analyzes four major constraints on the conduct of such operations: legal concerns about the use of force, use of the CIA for covert paramilitary activities, limits on USSOCOM and Special Operations Forces, and civilian and military leaders' aversion to risk. It describes the historical, bureaucratic and cultural causes of the constraints, concluding with recommendations to allow the US government and the US military to pursue non-state terrorists and extremists with overt offensive military operations.
A SOCIAL MOVEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR SUPPORTING CIVIL RESISTANCE CAMPAIGNS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) Tynan, William J.; Borer, Douglas A.; Defense Analysis (DA); Everton, Sean F.
Civil resistance campaigns and preexisting social movements are underutilized by the U.S. government. Providing support to allied, nonviolent social movements creates another means to deter malign influence and resist aggression. How can leadership, planners, and practitioners within the U.S. government best support an ally’s civil resistance campaign? This thesis used contemporary social movement theory to analyze civil resistance campaigns in Mongolia, Poland, Serbia, and Burma. It then applied contemporary social movement theory and analysis to a hypothetical, partnered resistance strategy with an allied country: Mongolia. Analysis shows that civil resistance expands political opportunities in unique ways and has a sponsorship advantage compared to armed resistance. Based on the elements of social movements, planners can identify weaknesses in a resistance movement and develop strategies to augment the underlying mechanism of support. This model can also be used to develop civil resistance capacity before conflict to serve as a deterrent. Partnering with an ally to prepare before a crisis or conflict occurs can enhance a movement’s ability to mobilize. This thesis recommends that military leadership and planners direct attention toward supporting nonviolent social movements and use contemporary social movement theory to inform resistance strategy.
Cyber Analogies
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-02-28) Defense Analysis (DA); Goldman, Emily O.; Arquilla, John
This anthology of cyber analogies will resonate with readers whose duties call for them to set strategies to protect the virtual domain and determine the policies that govern it. Our belief is that learning is most effective when concepts under consideration can be aligned with already-existing understanding or knowledge. Cyber issues are inherently tough to explain in layman's terms. The future is always open and undetermined, and the numbers of actors and the complexity of their relations are too great to give definitive guidance about future developments. In this respect, historical analogies, carefully developed and properly applied, help indicate a direction for action by reducing complexity and making the future at least cognately manageable.