Experiments in numerical forecasting of tropical storm movement
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Authors
Kerr, James Earl
Subjects
Tropical storms
Hurricanes
Typhoons
Forecasting
Steering
Hurricanes
Typhoons
Forecasting
Steering
Advisors
Renard, Robert J.
Date of Issue
1966-10
Date
October 1966
Publisher
Monterey, California. U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Numerical prediction is rapidly becoming the most accurate approach to forecasting tropical cyclones. The numerical model in this study utilizes the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather
Facility's (FNWF) so-called decomposition (SR) fields to produce geostrophic steering currents for tropical storms and/or hurricanes and typhoons.
Fifteen of the 1965 hurricanes and typhoons were used to obtain over 200 twelve and twenty-four hour storm predictions, in one-hour time steps, for each of the following FNWF analyses: 1000, 500, 200, 1000/500, 1000/200, and 500/200 -mb SR fields.
Results indicate that the 500-mb SR fields, including a statistical correction for latitude
and/or longitude, yielded the least forecast error for Pacific typhoons with average 12 and
24-hour storm errors of 69 nm and 154 nm, respectively. Forecasts for Atlantic hurricanes verified best for 12-hour forecasts at 1000 mb, using a similar geographical modification,
with an average error of 97 nm. For 24 hours the hurricanes were steered best at 500 mb, with modification, resulting in an average forecast error of 177 nm.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology and Oceanography
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.