Publication:
Development and application of an analog scheme for predicting the intensification of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones

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Authors
Foster, Kent William
Subjects
tropical cyclone
analog forecast
statistical forecast
North Pacific Ocean
Western North Pacific Ocean
forecasting
typhoon
intensity forecasting
Advisors
Renard, Robert J.
Date of Issue
1973-03
Date
March 1973
Publisher
Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School
Language
eng
Abstract
Various meteorological parameters were examined to determine their predictive value for forecasting intensity changes of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones using an analog forecast scheme. A number of procedures were devised to quantitatively define the forecast potentials of these parameters in a systematic method. Based on the results of these procedures, predictors for the 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour forecast periods were defined. To evaluate the skill of the predictors and the procedures used to define them, an analog intensification forecast scheme was developed and applied to a number of test cyclones. The results of these forecasts were compared to the acceptability criteria established by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Guam and to official forecasts issued by this activity.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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