Publication:
An exploratory study of Sendero Luminoso's dynamics

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Authors
Devoto Gagliardi, Ricardo R.
Subjects
insurgency
Sendero Luminoso
shining path
system dynamics
system dynamic modeling
decision making process
feedback structure
stock and flow structure
system's parameters pattern of behavior
pattern analysis
Advisors
Fox, William P.
Burks, Robert E.
Date of Issue
2017-12
Date
Dec-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Any insurgency is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, as is the process of developing agood strategy to counter it. Understanding such types of dynamic complexity demands that strategists expand the boundaries of their mental models. A good strategy does not rely exclusively on a strategist's talent; it is conditioned on a holistic understanding of causal relationships encompassed in the problem and interactions among variables. This thesis analyzes the Peruvian insurgency of Sendero Luminoso through the lens of System Dynamics. This study explores eight fundamental concepts in System Dynamics in relation to the Peruvian insurgency: system parameters, system pattern of behavior, loop dominance, causal relationships, system's feedback structure, system's physical structure, decision-making process, and attributes of tangible quantities. It is demonstrated that useful strategic insight can be obtained from System Dynamics models and subsequent simulations. Furthermore, this work may help to illuminate a few of the factors involved in the defeat of Sendero Luminoso, and might assist policy makers and military strategists to craft efficient counterinsurgency strategies in the future. Finally, this thesis constitutes the initial step for the development of a formal and complete System Dynamics Model of the Peruvian insurgency.
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Thesis
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Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
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