Publication:
Geographic profiling: knowledge through prediction

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Authors
Crosby, Tiffany D.
Subjects
Geographic profiling
intelligence cycle
terrorism
prediction
geographic information systems
Philippines
Abu Sayyaf Group
Advisors
Fox, William
Date of Issue
2014-06
Date
June 2014
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
For years it has been the goal of the Intelligence Community to limit sharply or even put a stop to terrorism, be it through the prevention of attacks or apprehension of those seeking to commit such acts. While there has been some success, perhaps further progress could be made by incorporating techniques used by law enforcement into the intelligence process. Geographic profiling has been used successfully by law enforcement agencies to aid in the capture of serial criminals, and due to the similarities between the two, it is possible that geographic profiling could do the same against terrorists. In the case of the Abu Sayyaf Group in the southern islands of Sulu and Basilan in the Philippines, geographic profiling techniques were partially successful in highlighting the possible future locations or types of incidents that would next be committed by the group. The success was limited, but while it may not be the next great breakthrough in the prevention of terrorist attacks, it appears to be another layer of analysis that can be incorporated in the intelligence cycle.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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