Modeling anti-air warfare with discrete event simulation and analyzing naval convoy operations
Loading...
Authors
Opcin, Ali E.
Subjects
Discrete Event Simulation
Modeling Anti-Air Warfare
Simkit
Component Based Approach
Layered Defense Systems
Formation Movements
Design of Experiments
Simulation Output Analysis
Modeling Anti-Air Warfare
Simkit
Component Based Approach
Layered Defense Systems
Formation Movements
Design of Experiments
Simulation Output Analysis
Advisors
Buss, Arnold H.
Lucas, Thomas W.
Date of Issue
2016-06
Date
16-Jun
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Anti-air warfare (AAW) is a primary naval warfare area. Using AAW tactics and concepts of operations, this research explores the most critical success factors of convoy operations. In this study, a discrete event simulation (DES) was built by modeling ships, and their sensors and weapons, to simulate convoy operations under air threat. Where classified data was unavailable, assumptions were made and approximations were used in constructing the ships, weapons, and sensors. The model was used to simulate over 1.5 million naval battles varying 99 input variables using sophisticated and systematically created data combinations. To select the input settings over a specific range of input variables, a nearly orthogonal nearly balanced (NOB) Latin hypercube design was used. The effects of these input changes on the outputs were analyzed using partition trees and nominal logistic regression. The primary response variable was the survival of the High Value Unit (HVU) as a binary outcome. According to the analysis, in a convoy operation under air threat, the surface-to-air missile (SAM) specifications of the screen ships, the staying power of the HVU, and the anti-ship missile (ASM) specifications of the enemy ships had the most significant effect on the survival of the HVU.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Computer Science
MOVES Academic Committee
Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.