Publication:
Representing Uncertainty of Hierarchical and Response Surface Models to Improve Design of Experiments

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Authors
Lucas, Tom
Sanchez, Paul
Pav, Russell
Hamrick, Tom
Kelton, David
McDonald, Mary
Upton, Steve
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Advisors
Date of Issue
2015
Date
1 OCT 2014 – 31 MAR 2015
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
The Navy uses families of models of varying detail and focus to analyze forces and operational concepts. The information gleaned from these model- supported studies helps shape what the future Navy will look like and how it will fight. The current practice in the higher-to-lower-fidelity sequence of modeling is to use point estimates of more focused higher-fidelity model outputs as the inputs for the broader lower-fidelity models. It is vitally important to understand how these lower-level model errors are propagated through the series of models and how decisions are affected as a result. This research is reviewing previous efforts related to propagating errors in hierarchical models, empirically exploring the impacts of multiple approaches, and providing recommendations on extending and applying the methods—which will include uncertainty analysis, design of experiments (DOE), and preferred metamodel forms.
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Report
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Naval Research Program
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Naval Research Program
Prepared for: OPNAV N98, Mr. Vic Steinman and Mr. Chris Marsh
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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