Using a counterfactual process to identify the applicability of emerging technology

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Authors
Johnson, Michael William
Subjects
Augmented Reality
Boston Marathon
Boston Marathon bombing
counterfactuals
counterfactual analysis
counterfactual thought experiment
technology
emerging technology
law enforcement
Advisors
Wolman, Lauren
Morag, Nadav
Date of Issue
2014-09
Date
Sep-14
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Law enforcement is often ill-prepared to identify and adopt emerging technologies into its agencies and communities. This ineffectiveness frequently leads to unintended consequences, as well as a technological gap between police departments and the criminal elements. This thesis examines how counterfactual analysis might assist law enforcement organizations to successfully implement emerging technologies into society. A counterfactual thought experiment was conducted using a historical event in which the applicability of an emerging technology (or antecedent) was analyzed. The antecedent for this scenario was Augmented Reality technology, in the possession of law enforcement personnel during the Boston Marathon Bombing that occurred on April 15, 2013. This thesis found that counterfactual analyses could allow agencies to assess the value of emerging technologies by considering their hypothetical use in past incidents and determining applicability in the future. Adopting this process might assist law enforcement in becoming more efficient in acquiring and implementing new technologies into its communities.
Type
Thesis
Description
CHDS State/Local
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
Organization
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
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