Evaluation of Marine Corps Manpower computer simulation model
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Authors
Anderson, Eric S.
Subjects
computer simulation
agent-based simulation
sensitivity analysis
design of experiments
U.S. Marine Corps
manpower model
verification
validation
modeling
agent-based simulation
sensitivity analysis
design of experiments
U.S. Marine Corps
manpower model
verification
validation
modeling
Advisors
Buss, Arnold
Date of Issue
2016-12
Date
Dec-16
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Marine Corps Manpower Plans and Policy Division, Manpower & Reserve Affairs, is responsible for formulating Marine Corps force manpower plans. Accomplishing this mission requires extensive knowledge of the Human Resource Development Process (HRDP) for controlling future personnel attrition, retention, and accession quantities to ensure appropriate quantities of its various Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) and overall end strength are maintained. To assist their mission, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed in the Java computer language. This thesis investigates that simulation model, titled Manpower Simulation Model (MSM). This thesis provides documentation of MSM's architecture and processes, tests the sensitivity of its inputs through the use of an experimental design, and validates MSM's output measures by calculating the relative error for five successive forecast years for various HRDP categories. This thesis found that MSM's structure and output measurement responses aligned with HRDP practices. With respect to validation, on average the HRDP categories losses and accessions underestimated by 17 and 18 percent, respectively, while gains overestimated by 36 percent. The category promotions generally underestimated, but lessened in magnitude as grade increased. The category retention consistently overestimated for all grades. Lastly, the MSM showed biasness toward retaining Marines over backfilling vacancies through accessions.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Computer Science (CS)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.