Sequential estimation of optimal age replacement policies when distribution of lifetimes is phase type.

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Authors
Pumpiched, Patchara
Subjects
Seqential Estimation Procedure
Age replacement Policy
Optimal Replacement
Advisors
Whitaker, Lyn R.
Purdue, Peter
Date of Issue
1992-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Optimal age replacement policies are designed to cut down system failures and minimize maintenance cost. By scheduling planned replacements, a system is replaced at age * or at failure, whichever comes first, and the cost of replacement before failure (planned) is less than the cost after failure (unplanned). In this thesis, the distribution of lifetimes is a known, increasing failure rate phase type distribution. To find the optimal age of replacement, the parameters of the underlying phase type distribution must be estimated. An optimal age sequential estimation procedure is developed. In particular, the phase type distributions parameters are estimated using a matching moments nonlinear programming approach. Since there are many parameters associated with phase type distributions and the distributions include matrix exponential terms, the parameters are in general difficult to estimate. A specific case where the phase type distribution has initial probability vector a=(1,0,0) is studied for different sample sizes and compared with a similar nonparametric procedure.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
66 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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