Comparative efficacies of decision strategies and the effects of learning in dynamic environments: a computer simulation approach
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Authors
Rutledge, Spencer, III
Subjects
Dynamic decision making
Simulation
Complexity
Decision rules
Simulation
Complexity
Decision rules
Advisors
Sengupta, Kishore
Jones, Carl R.
Date of Issue
1993-09
Date
September 1993
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Models of aggregation in management science and economics are not consistent with micro-empirical knowledge of individual decision making. This has occurred as a result of using heuristics that are derived from behavioral studies which focused on discrete incidents. This approach fails to recognize decision making as a continuous process and overlooks the importance of feedback. This study examines the performance of various decision strategies (heuristics) in dynamic environments through computer simulation. Within dynamic task environments, three classes of strategies are examined: (a) feedback oriented strategies, (b) non-feedback oriented strategies and; (c) a strategy that incorporates learning. The relative efficacies of these strategies are compared. The results show that feedback oriented strategies achieved a higher level of performance than non-feedback oriented strategies. And the strategy that incorporated learning outperformed all other strategies. A few anomalies exist and may require additional sampling. The implications of these findings for command decision making indicate that, feedback from prior military actions can play an important role in adapting existing systems to meets new military roles in changing environments.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Administrative Sciences
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
55 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.