OPTIMIZING FIRST-TERM RETENTION OF SAILORS
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Authors
Hong, Young S.
Subjects
attrition rate
retention rate
recruiting
recruit
first-term sailor
retention rate
recruiting
recruit
first-term sailor
Advisors
Yoshida, Ruriko
Chen, Louis
Date of Issue
2022-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
In many cases, a low retention rate of first-term sailors indicates that unsatisfactory sailors who are struggling to find guidance also cannot find a career path that fits them. Helping each sailor find their best fit can improve the retention rate in the Navy. The Navy recently developed the Job Opportunities In the Navy (JOIN) program to help sailors find their career paths on the Bureau of Naval Personnel Online. However, there are not enough data to support the effectiveness of JOIN.
Based on a dataset obtained from the Navy Enlisted System, we first analyze which factors correlate to sailors’ stays in the Navy. Then using the results from the first part of the analysis, we set up a probability distribution model to maximize the retention rate of enlisted sailors in the Navy. The result from this study can be used to help first-term sailors with JOIN. First, we conduct an analysis using a binomial logistic regression model and then calculate the model’s accuracy using a confusion matrix. Second, using the variables we select in the first part of our analysis, we set up an optimization model, specifically a probability distribution model, to maximize the retention rates of enlisted sailors. Our model produces a list of rates, from the highest probability of retention rate to the lowest probability for recruits.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.