The Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers, New Estimates and Policy Simulations of the Aviator Continuation Pay Program
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Authors
Mattock, Michael
Arkes, Jeremy
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2007
Date
2007
Publisher
RAND
Language
en_US
Abstract
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) needs to attract, promote, and retain the appropriate quantity and quality (e.g., experience level) of officers to execute current and future missions. The pay and promotion system is a key tool in officer retention efforts. The USAF needs to be able to assess the probable effects of changes in pay and promotion policies on the future retention of USAF officers before actually implementing proposed changes. Therefore, the Air Force is interested in models that can simulate the effects changes in pay and promotion policy might have on officer retention. This technical report documents a particular type of model, the dynamic retention model (DRM) developed by Glenn A. Gotz and John Joseph McCall in A Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers: Theory and Estimates, RAND Corporation, R-3028-AF, 1984, and the extension of the basic DRM to take into account the effect of the availability of multiyear contracts to certain classes of Air Force officers. Unlike other models, the DRM takes into account the value an officer may place on future career flexibility and thus is particularly well suited to examining the effect of bonus programs that have service commitments, such as the Aviator Continuation Pay (ACP) program. The model described in this report was initially developed for a fiscal year (FY) 2003 project, “Officer Retention and Experience,” sponsored by Lt Gen Roger A. Brady, Deputy Chief of Staff, Personnel, Headquarters U.S. Air Force (AF/A1). The research was conducted in the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. The report should interest those involved in Air Force officer personnel management and those with an interest in modeling to support development of personnel policies.
Type
Report
Description
The article of record as published may be found at https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR470.html
Series/Report No
Department
Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contracts FA7014-06-C-0001 and F49642-01-C-0003.
Funder
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contracts FA7014-06-C-0001 and F49642-01-C-0003.
Format
83 p.
Citation
Mattock, Michael G., and Jeremy Arkes. The Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers: New Estimates and Policy Simulations of the Aviator Continuation Pay Program. Vol. 470. Rand Corporation, 2007.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.