TOWARDS A SCORECARD CONFIDENCE METRIC USING A TIME-LAGGED-MULTI-MODEL (TLMM) ENSEMBLE
Authors
Johnson, Shunika S.
Subjects
Bayesian statistics
time-lagged model
EM warfare
electromagnetic propagation
numerical weather prediction
mesoscale meteorology
ensemble forecasting
CASPER
time-lagged model
EM warfare
electromagnetic propagation
numerical weather prediction
mesoscale meteorology
ensemble forecasting
CASPER
Advisors
Nuss, Wendell A.
Feldmeier, Joel W., Office of Naval Research Global
Date of Issue
2022-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Consistent and quantitative methods to characterize the run-to-run performance of the Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System Numerical Weather Prediction (COAMPS NWP) model have not been readily available to naval forecasters. Moreover, an ensemble version of COAMPS is not typically run for uncertainty calculations. Operational forecasters rely on COAMPS output to use tactical decision aids (TDA) and ultimately provide mission-critical forecasts. COAMPS NWP forecasts are deterministic and only provide end-users with a specific value for a given area and time. An ensemble model, such as a Time-Lagged-Multi-Model (TLMM), may provide an acceptable method to combine successive deterministic forecasts into probabilistic values with associated uncertainty. This research is focused on statistical methods to investigate the uncertainty and statistical properties of COAMPS NWP deterministic model data, and ultimately develop a new statistical and analytical approach to capture model uncertainty in parameters used for electromagnetic propagation predictions. This uncertainty could then be shared with the end-user for improved mission planning and decisions. The overall goal of this research is not to improve the performance of COAMPS NWP output, but to assess the performance and uncertainty of a deterministic forecast.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology (MR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.