Decision Analysis with Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Illustrative Applications

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Authors
Simon, Jay
Kirkwood, Craig W.
Keller, L. Robin
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2011
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Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
This paper derives and applies preference models for decision analysis when consequences of the decision can vary across a geographic region. These models address both decisions where decision consequences are constant within specified subregions of the overall geographic region, and where consequences can vary in a continuous fashion across the region. We define preference conditions for such decisions, and derive specific value and utility function forms that are implied by these conditions. The functions are applied to two planning decisions involving water use and temperature reduction in regional urban development, and fire coverage across a city. These examples illustrate the applicability of the approach and the insights that can be gained from using it. With the increasing use of computer-based geographic information systems, it is now practical to use sophisticated decision making procedures of this type in situations where decision alternatives have geographically varying consequences, and these approaches can yield additional insights into the key drivers of a decision.
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Working Paper
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.