Arms Races in the Middle East: A Test of Causality

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Authors
Looney, Robert E.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1990
Date
1990
Publisher
Language
Abstract
In recent decades, high levels of military expenditures have characterized the budgetary structures of most Middle Eastern countries.1 The basic patterns are well known, and for obvious reasons there has been an on-going interest among analysts (a) to explain the militarization of the region as a whole and (b) to search for variables to explain the level of defence spending of the major countries. This latter thrust has focused on factors such as economic conditions, population, size of the country, rivalries, and arms races. Here, conventional wisdom stresses regional arms races as the prime culprit in accounting for the staggering military burdens, particularly those accrued by Israel, Egypt and Syria. Unfortunately, most of this analysis in this area has been anecdotal at best. In addition, many of the empirical studies of the region's militarization are based on models built largely on arbitrary and often unrealistic assumptions concerning the action/reaction patterns of the major participants.2 · The purpose of this paper is to identify from a quantitative perspective the existence of and causation involved in the region's major arms races. To avoid preconceived perceptions and/or biases, the approach is purely atheoretical, and is based on several new statistical developments in the analysis of causation.
Type
Article
Description
Refereed Journal Article
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Looney, R.E., "Arms Races in the Middle East: A Test of Causality," Arms Control, Volume 11, No. 2, September 1990.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Collections