Arms Races in the Middle East: A Test of Causality
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Authors
Looney, Robert E.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1990
Date
1990
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Abstract
In recent decades, high levels of military expenditures have characterized
the budgetary structures of most Middle Eastern countries.1 The basic
patterns are well known, and for obvious reasons there has been an
on-going interest among analysts (a) to explain the militarization of the
region as a whole and (b) to search for variables to explain the level of
defence spending of the major countries. This latter thrust has focused
on factors such as economic conditions, population, size of the country,
rivalries, and arms races.
Here, conventional wisdom stresses regional arms races as the prime
culprit in accounting for the staggering military burdens, particularly
those accrued by Israel, Egypt and Syria. Unfortunately, most of this
analysis in this area has been anecdotal at best. In addition, many of
the empirical studies of the region's militarization are based on models
built largely on arbitrary and often unrealistic assumptions concerning
the action/reaction patterns of the major participants.2 ยท
The purpose of this paper is to identify from a quantitative perspective
the existence of and causation involved in the region's major arms races.
To avoid preconceived perceptions and/or biases, the approach is purely
atheoretical, and is based on several new statistical developments in the
analysis of causation.
Type
Article
Description
Refereed Journal Article
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Citation
Looney, R.E., "Arms Races in the Middle East: A Test of Causality," Arms Control, Volume 11, No. 2, September 1990.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.