GEOSPATIAL EVALUATION OF EMERGENCY INFRASTRUCTURE: ANALYZING FDNY’S FACILITY RISK FROM SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS

Abstract

The effects of sea level rise acutely expose the critical infrastructure of the New York City Fire Department (FDNY), a mission-critical organization that must provide emergency services throughout severe weather events. This research answers the following question: What steps should the FDNY take to fortify its most vulnerable facilities against the effects of sea level rise and increased precipitation? Using predictive modeling from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Fifth National Climate Assessment to determine the effects of sea level rise on the FDNY’s response infrastructure and applying the national standard for professional fire department response times for arrival at an emergency scene, this thesis simulated four severity scenarios. When a map of New York City and locations of New York City firehouses were overlaid on the floodplain using ArcGIS software, the models identified locations that fire department units could not reach within the prescribed four minutes due to inundation of firehouses by flooding. This modeling showed that under the lowest inundation scenario (10th percentile), approximately 10 percent of New York City firehouses would be flooded, and that under the highest inundation scenario (90th percentile), approximately 14 percent of all New York City firehouses would be flooded. The FDNY should take steps to fortify existing facilities, upgrade infrastructure, and prepare for relocation of vulnerable assets in the long term.