Striking at the underbelly: influencing would-be terrorists
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Authors
Uddin, Waseem
Dizdaroglu, Vural
Subjects
Terrorism
deterrence
influence
would-be terrorists
Prospect Theory
losses and gains frame.
deterrence
influence
would-be terrorists
Prospect Theory
losses and gains frame.
Advisors
Freeman, Michael E.
Date of Issue
2013-12
Date
Dec-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Modern states are approaching the issue of terrorism from both kinetic and non-kinetic perspectives; however, the focus of the international community has largely been on terrorist organizations, their leadership and their active and passive members, in whom the terrorist ideology is already deeply ingrained, and thus, they are difficult to turn toward a peaceful path. However, this thesis focuses on would-be terrorists, who may be relatively easier to influence. It identifies the possible causes that lead candidates toward the path of terrorism. According to Kahneman and Tverskys Prospect Theory, people in the losses frame are more risk acceptant and therefore more prone to join terrorists causes. To counter this risk-acceptant behavior, the answer lies not only in identifying possible causes for their placement in the losses frame, but in finding ways to transfer the would-be terrorists to a gains frame, thereby preventing them from joining the terrorist organizations. By adopting this strategy, there will be an indirect influence on the current wave of terrorism in the long-term, as well as a benefit in the short term by partially choking the inputs to the terrorists organizations.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.