CANARY IN THE COAL MINE: ANIMAL BEHAVIOR SOUNDING THE ALARM FOR NATURAL DISASTERS
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Authors
Cheung, Serena D.
Subjects
animal behavior
forecasting
forecast models
weather prediction
warnings
natural disasters
tropical cyclones
hurricanes
earthquakes
climate change
preparedness
planning
risk
data analysis
emergency managers
biomimetics
bioinspiration
zoology
ecology
environmental conservation
forecasting
forecast models
weather prediction
warnings
natural disasters
tropical cyclones
hurricanes
earthquakes
climate change
preparedness
planning
risk
data analysis
emergency managers
biomimetics
bioinspiration
zoology
ecology
environmental conservation
Advisors
Halladay, Carolyn C.
Peters, Lynda A.
Date of Issue
2024-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The persistent loss of life and widespread damage caused by natural disasters highlight the unpredictable and severe nature of these events and the need for better forecasting methodologies. This critical homeland security concern drives researchers to innovate, with pre-disaster anomalous animal behavior emerging as a key area of interest. This thesis investigates the potential of leveraging changes in animal behavior prior to natural disasters to improve the accuracy of disaster forecasting. Through a meta-narrative review, the thesis synthesizes observations of adaptive animal behavior among various avian, terrestrial, and aquatic species before tropical cyclones and earthquakes—the world’s most dangerous natural hazards to life and property. Several species exhibit conspicuous behavioral changes (e.g., variations in breeding patterns and activity levels) in anticipation of these natural disasters. Collectively, these animal-based indicators could enhance the reliability of disaster forecasting, offering potential insights across varying lead times and locations. This thesis advocates for more research that systematically explores adaptive animal behavior, as integrating bioindicators into forecast models could revolutionize forecasting and strengthen disaster preparedness in the United States.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (CHDS)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.