21st Century Strategic Stability, A U.S.-Russia Track II Dialogue
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Authors
Tsypkin, Mikhail
Wueger, Diana
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Advisors
Date of Issue
2014-10
Date
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Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
The opportunities for cooperation in strengthening strategic stability between the
United States and Russia have been greatly reduced by the deterioration of the
relations between the two countries as well as by their different views of strategic
stability in bilateral relations and in several key regions of the world. The situation has
been further complicated by the Kremlin’s belief that the United States’ primary goal is
regime change in Russia, and by the politicization of expert, media, and official analysis
in Russia. Russia considers practically all U.S. policies (e.g., missile defense,
conventional Prompt Global Strike, democracy promotion, use of military force in the
Middle East) as a threat to strategic stability. Russia views the situation in the Middle
East through the prism of the competition with the United States. Russia has relatively
little interest in strengthening strategic stability in the China-India-Pakistan
relationship, being more preoccupied with protecting Central Asia from Islamist
fighters. When it comes to China, there are chances for a discrete dialogue between
Russia and the United States, if and when the relations between Washington and
Moscow improve. In the current situation, nuclear arms control negotiations, both at
the strategic and non-strategic levels, have little chance of success. If the Russian
economy continues to slow down, it is possible that Russia may consider further U.S.-
Russian bilateral reductions of strategic nuclear weapons. In the meanwhile, unofficial
contacts (Track II) between U.S. and Russian experts should be maintained in order to
understand how our competing visions of doctrine and capabilities might play out in a
confrontation or crisis where the use of force is a real possibility.
Type
Report
Description
This report is the product of collaboration between the Naval Postgraduate School Center on
Contemporary Conflict and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.