Information forecasting for hurricane preparation
Loading...
Authors
Regnier, Eva D.
Harr, Patrick
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2006
Date
2006
Publisher
AMS
Language
en_US
Abstract
At the lead times required to complete a sortie, evacuation, or other preparation, the future track of a tropical cyclone is uncertain. The decision whether and when to prepare is based on a forecast and information about the error implicit in the forecast. On average, later forecasts (with shorter lead time) are more accurate than earlier forecasts. Therefore when deciding whether to initiate a costly preparation, there is a trade-off between lead time and forecast accuracy. There can be substantial value in accounting for the anticipation of improving forecasts in making hurricane preparation decisions (Regnier and Harr, 2005). In order make the trade-off between the effectiveness of early preparation and the improved accuracy of updated forecasts, decision makers must have an assessment of the value of waiting and the improvement in the forecast that can be anticipated if they wait.
Type
Conference Paper
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
3 p.
Citation
Regnier, Eva, and Patrick Harr. "Information forecasting for hurricane preparation." 27th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, Monterrey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2006.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.