Publication:
Formal process modeling to improve human-decision-making during test and evaluation range control

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Authors
Carlson, William
Subjects
test range
decision-making
high-value decision
test plan
Advisors
Giammarco, Kristin
Date of Issue
2017-09
Date
Sep-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Test and evaluation (T&E) managers often control testing via heuristics (i.e., using experience and lessons learned from previous testing to modify existing range control procedures). An exclusively heuristic approach may prove difficult in predicting test control issues with new systems. Given this limitation, this thesis poses the following question: Can formally modeling the process of conducting test range events expose previously overlooked ambiguities and identify high-value decision points? This thesis explores how formalization of these experience-based decisions as a process model representing a T&E event may reveal high-value decision nodes where certain decisions carry more weight or potential for impacts to a successful test. The thesis evaluates behavioral modeling techniques and language, ultimately using the Innoslate modeling software tool to construct a formal model of the range decision process. The thesis presents the results of the simulation runs in Innoslate and shows how having the formal model improves on the simplified model by expanding the process from two to eleven decision points. The thesis concludes that the formal model has use as a planning tool that can assist mangers in anticipating problems and focusing resources on resolving these issues.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Systems Engineering (SE)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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