Publication:
Forecasting aircraft mishaps using monthly maintenance reports

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Authors
Van Houten, John S.
Subjects
Advisors
Lewis, Peter A.W.
Date of Issue
1994-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Naval Aviation aircraft mishaps continue to be of great concern due to the high cost of loss of life and aircraft. The goal of this thesis is to develop a predictive statistical model that accurately forecasts Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier aircraft mishaps based on existing monthly maintenance reports. Monthly maintenance reports provide numerous independent variables based on personnel levels and maintenance hours that could possibly be used to forecast aircraft mishaps. These variables were graphically analyzed to determine any relationships that could be exploited in developing the model. Higher order relationships were investigated by the method of principal components and logistic regression. After a thorough analysis, there appears to be no combination of variables in this particular data that could be used to forecast aircraft mishaps. The overall result of the thesis is that there is no relationship between monthly maintenance reports and aircraft mishaps that can be exploited to develop a predictive statistical model
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Other Units
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
67 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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