Publication:
Predicting business failure: identifying high-risk contractors.

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Authors
Matthews, William McKinley
Subjects
bankruptcy
cognitive complexity
Advisors
Euske, K.J.
Date of Issue
1983-06
Date
June 1983
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the usefulness of the qualitative information found in annual financial reports for making predictions about corporate failure. The content of the presidents' cover letters for a matched pair of firms, failed versus non-failed, spanning the five-year period prior to failure were analyzed and scored for integrative complexity. The major finding was that a firm may be identified as a probable candidate for failure as many as five years prior to the time of entering bankruptcy proceedings. When employed in conjunction with current prescribed analytical techniques utilized by Department of Defense contracting and purchasing officials in determining a contractor's capacity to perform, this technique may prove useful in identifying high-risk contractors, thereby reducing the risk of financial loss to the government.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Administrative Sciences
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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