The myth of Afghan electoral democracy: the irregularities of the 2014 presidential election
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Authors
Johnson, Thomas H.
Subjects
2014 Afghan Presidential Election
ethno-linguistic voting patterns
illegitimate voting
illegitimate voting results
Dr. Ashraf Ghani
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
Afghan polling center data
Afghan 2014 June "runoff election"
ethno-linguistic voting patterns
illegitimate voting
illegitimate voting results
Dr. Ashraf Ghani
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
Afghan polling center data
Afghan 2014 June "runoff election"
Advisors
Date of Issue
2018
Date
Publisher
Taylor & Francis Group
Language
Abstract
This article systematically assesses the 2014 Afghanistan Presidential Election, the first transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to an elected successor, using provincial voting data as well as explicit data from polling centers. The analysis finds unusual voting results in the April election, where no candidate received 50%+1 votes required by the Afghan constitution, versus the voting results realized for the June ‘runoff election.’ As in other Afghan voting analyses, this article finds voting based on ethno-linguistic preferences, and interestingly found Dr. Ashraf Ghani receiving almost all the swing votes in the runoff election even though the other leading candidate from the April elec- tion all endorsed Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. More importantly, however, the research presented here clearly finds extremely strange voting patterns. For example, the polling data center analysis finds 606 polling places where Ghani received all 600 votes and Abdullah received none and another 900 polling centers that gave virtually all its votes to Ghani. These results in combination with other analyses raise the very real possibility that the election results were illegitimate. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the research to future Afghan elections and their processes as well as to the long- standing conflict in the country.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1546273
Includes supplementary material
Includes supplementary material
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
34 p.
Citation
Thomas H. Johnson (2018) The myth of Afghan electoral democracy: the irregularities of the 2014 presidential election, Small Wars & Insurgencies, 29:5-6, 1006-1039
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.