Publication:
Forecasting carrier air-wing operational availability with event step simulation

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Authors
Patten, Michael P.
Subjects
Aviation Retail Requirements Oriented to Weapon Replaceable Assemblies (ARROWs)
Operational Availability (Ao)
Readiness Based Sparing (RBS)
Aviation Consolidated Allowance List (AVCAL)
Advisors
Schrady, David A.
Date of Issue
1999-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis develops an event step simulation that models the Operational Availability (Ao) of carrier aircraft based on the supply and maintenance of Weapon Replaceable Assemblies (WRAs). It verifies that WRA allowances, developed by the Aviation Readiness Requirements oriented to WRAs (ARROWs) model, achieve a target level of Ao given stated assumptions. It expands on ARROWs by characterizing not just the expected value of Ao but also its variability and probability distribution function. The simulation is expanded to include a variety of factors not considered by ARROWs. Examples of these factors include actual flight schedules, variable and prioritized requisitioning and repair, and cannibalization. The impact of these factors on the distribution of Ao is quantified. Simultaneous examination of all factors reveals that the full simulation predicts actual Ao approximately as well as ARROWs. In general, the full simulation overestimates Ao, and ARROWs underestimates Ao
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xxii, 134 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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