GAUSSIAN PROCESSES FOR SATELLITE DATA

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Authors
Martin, David W.
Subjects
machine learning
artificial intelligence
atmospheric science
Gaussian processes
GP
convolutional neural network
CNN
Bayesian neural network
BNN
Advisors
Orescanin, Marko
Date of Issue
2023-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on satellite data sets outperforms previous meteorological methods for classifying weather events from space-based sensor data. However, CNNs alone lack the ability to quantify the uncertainty about their prediction given the input to the model. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a mathematical technique for making predictions while providing an estimate of the functional uncertainty about the underlying model; however, they are more computationally expensive to train than traditional CNNs. We train a ResNet50 CNN augmented with GPs against a large satellite dataset but test the model across not only held out data from the training dataset but also two other large datasets of a tropical cyclone and mesoscale convective system to test model performance across a variety of weather events. We compare the accuracy of a ResNet50 CNN augmented with GPs for the output layer of the neural network to the Goddard Profiling Algorithm, a differential equation-based approach that is not based on neural networks, a fully-deterministic neural network, as well as several Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and find that Gaussian Processes outperform the GPROF and deterministic approaches but fall short of the top-end BNN results. Additionally, more work is needed to compare if the uncertainty estimates from the GPs are better calibrated than the uncertainty estimates from the BNNs.
Type
Thesis
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Department
Computer Science (CS)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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