"Graphing" an Optimal Grand Strategy
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Authors
Arquilla, John
Fredricksen, Hal
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1995
Date
Fall 1995
Publisher
Military Operations Research
Language
Abstract
Graph theory provides a useful framework
for generating insights into problems
of sufficiency and optimality
across a wide variety of physical relationships.
Applied to the realm of grand strategy,
this approach assists in developing a
methodology for estimating the minimum
level of forces required and determining the
optimal deployments for the successful pursuit
of national security goals. In theory, the
adoption of a defense-in-depth maneuver
strategy provides the most efficient use of
scarce resources. However, deterrence stability
attenuates due to the absence of robust
local balances of forces. Comparative case
analyses of the Roman and British empires
confirm the efficiency of depth defense, as well as the weakening of deterrence. Implications
for U.S. policy are that, despite
sizeable reductions, two regional wars can
be fought and won, nearly simultaneously,
even below base force levels. However, the
deployments required to effect this grand
strategy may make challenges to conventional
deterrence more likely. Finally, it is
demonstrated that small increases in forces
above minimum requirements create a valuable
"margin of safety" and may significantly
improve crisis and deterrence stability...
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Article
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National Security Affairs
Mathematics
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.