Publication:
VERIFICATION ANALYSIS OF ARMSTRONG'S STOCHASTIC SALVO EQUATIONS USING DATA FARMING

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Authors
Li, Chuan-Huan
Subjects
Hughes’ salvo model
Armstrong's stochastic salvo model
data farming
design of experiment
simulation
nearly orthogonal Latin hypercube
nearly orthogonal and balanced design
Naval Surface Warfare
Advisors
Lucas, Thomas W.
Date of Issue
2018-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Models such as Hughes’ deterministic salvo equations are used by countries around the world to assist in determining the numbers, capabilities, and employment strategies of their naval warships. Armstrong extended Hughes’ model to create a stochastic salvo model (SSM). Armstrong also evaluated his key assumptions by comparing his closed-form solutions against simulation as a more realistic alternative. This thesis performs a more comprehensive comparison of the SSM versus simulation, utilizing sophisticated design of experiments. Statistical models and case studies are used to identify which combinations of model inputs cause the largest biases (or differences) between the simulation and the SSM. The results show that for independent missiles the SSM closely matches the simulation throughout the region explored. The bias increases when the missiles are correlated or the force levels are large. This is particularly noticeable when estimating the probabilities of zero loss or annihilation. The bias also depends critically on whether the forces are in an overkill, intermediate, or over defense situation. The SSM, our R simulation, and a prototype characteristic function evaluator of the binomial stochastic salvo model are all implemented in a “Shiny” application. This facilitates exploration of the various models within a single user-friendly interface.
Type
Thesis
Description
Reissued 27 Sep 2018 to reflect correction to equation (1).
Department
Operations Research (OR)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
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