Publication:
Long-range operational military forecasts for Iraq

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Authors
Hanson, Christopher M.
Subjects
Advisors
Murphree, Tom
Pfeiffer, Karl
Date of Issue
2007-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
for Iraq surface temperature and precipitation rate, with the compositing based on the observed occurrence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino â La Nina (ENLN) climate variations. We then used composite analysis results to produce long range forecasts of Iraq surface temperature and precipitation rate based on the predicted occurrence of the NAO and ENLN. These forecasts outperformed forecasts based on long-term means (LTMs). Forecasts based on LTMs are currently the best available long range forecasts available from DoD. Thus, the composite analysis forecasts developed and tested in this study are a clear improvement over presently available DoD long range guidance products. The outcome of this study is a vector for the DoD weather community to expand out from the almost exclusive use of LTM based climatological products, and to invest in modern state-of-the-art methods for to supporting the global mission of the DoD.
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Thesis
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Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
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Format
xvii, 59 p. : ill. ;
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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