ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND OPERATIONS AND INVESTMENTS IN ITS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY: AN OPEN SOURCE DATA APPROACH
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Authors
Kelton, Ryan A.
Subjects
data analysis
Armed Conflict Location and Event Database
ACLED
U.S. Central Command
CENTCOM
event data
forecast
time series
area of responsibility
AOR
area under the curve
AUC
receiver operating characteristic
ROC
Armed Conflict Location and Event Database
ACLED
U.S. Central Command
CENTCOM
event data
forecast
time series
area of responsibility
AOR
area under the curve
AUC
receiver operating characteristic
ROC
Advisors
Koyak, Robert A.
Date of Issue
2024-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis explores the relationships between a collection of predictor variables and the levels of conflict in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). Among these predictor variables, we also assess the impact of CENTCOM operations on violence. First, we develop stepwise multiple linear regression and random forest regression models to forecast conflict events one week into the future within six countries. We find that the lags of the outcome variables themselves, along with internal conflict, and the total number of conflict events are significant predictors in the models. Several of the models select CENTCOM activities as a predictor variable. We also use random forest classification models to characterize levels of violence one week into the future. Over half of the random forest classification models achieve a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 or higher. Once again, the lags of the outcome variables influence the models more than the other predictor variables. Finally, we develop time series models to forecast events six months into the future. We find that model accuracies depend on the countries they represent. We also find that the Israel-Hamas war, which began late in the scope of our analysis, impacts the accuracy of some country models.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.