A methodology for assessing acquisition technical risk
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Authors
Harrison, William G.
Subjects
Weapon System Acquisition
Decision Theory
Risk Assessment
Technical Risk
Utility Theory
Decision Theory
Risk Assessment
Technical Risk
Utility Theory
Advisors
Sovereign, Michael G.
Date of Issue
1992-06
Date
1992-Jun
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis examines the problems affecting the quantitative assessment of technical risk in Department of Defense major weapon systems acquisition. A decision Theory approach is used. Commercial techniques and current DoD methods of technical risk assessment are investigated. TASCFORM TM technology values are used in a linear regression model to characterize the growth of technology over time. The model residuals provide a probability distribution for estimating the likelihood of achieving a specified level of technical performance. The benefit of a utility function describing technical risk perceptions is considered. The Expanded Pearson-Tukey method of describing risk is also investigated. Continued research into technology valuation techniques is recommended. A test case application of the Expanded Pearson-Tukey method is also recommended, to determine its ability to provide reliable and timely quantitative technical risk information. Weapon System Acquisition, Decision Theory, Risk Assessment, Technical Risk, Utility Theory.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Systems Technology
Command, Control and Communications
Command, Control, and Communications Academic Group
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
x, 141 p.: ill.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.