A comparison of classical and Bayesian methods for determining lower confidence limits on system reliability.

Abstract

A series system is simulated to obtain lower confidence limits on system reliability using Bayesian techniques. A comparison between classical and Bayesian methods is made. Random beta variate generators are developed and used in the simulation. The results of the simulation are tabulated for easy comparison of the Bayesian and classical methods. The values of lower confidence limits that are realized using the Bayesian method decrease as the number of components increase. In most cases, as the number of components increase, the Bayesian method appears to yield lower values of lower confidence limits than the classical method.