Estimating the Estimate: Toward a Quick and Inexpensive Method for Weapons System Cost Estimation
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Authors
Pickar, Charles K.
Feely, Kevin G.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2017-03
Date
2017-03
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This paper describes a process to provide low-cost and timely cost estimation for weapons system and services procurements based on data analytics. This will enable quick estimation that can serve as a sanity check for more formal estimation methods. Specifically, this cost estimation technique is built on the price-to-win methodology used by defense companies to respond to DoD solicitations. The process is based on market clearing prices as reflected by actual winning bids, expert knowledge to validate the scope of work, and an algorithm developed to incorporate these aspects into an estimate. The process is an ﾓestimate of the estimateﾔ and meant as an adjunct to formal cost estimating processes. The value lies in the ability to create quick, inexpensive estimates responsive to management needs while the formal cost estimating process proceeds.
Type
Presentation
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
SYM-AM-17-112
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.