CHANGING TIDES OR ADAPTIVE DRIFT? AN ANALYSIS OF SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
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Authors
Christensen, Temesha R.
Subjects
strategy
Southeast Asia
China
PRC
People's Republic of China
influence
power
United States
great power competition
economic
trade
foreign direct investment
investment
Southeast Asia
China
PRC
People's Republic of China
influence
power
United States
great power competition
economic
trade
foreign direct investment
investment
Advisors
Borer, Douglas A.
Date of Issue
2020-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increasingly expanded its economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia has specifically become one of the PRC’s regional focus areas. The PRC has emphasized increasing political relationships and economic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Currently, the U.S. government lacks a quantitative assessment that measures the PRC’s influence in the region by assessing the behaviors of the countries in Southeast Asia. This investigation seeks to identify if the PRC’s economic investment in Southeast Asia is influencing measurable behavior. To analyze the PRC’s influence, this research uses votes from the United Nations General Assembly and economic investment data to assess the relationship between the behaviors of Southeast Asian countries and the PRC’s economic investment. The quantitative analysis of these factors finds that alignment with the PRC is stronger in poor countries when the trade balance is in the PRC’s favor; however, under the same condition in richer countries, alignment with the PRC declines. Additionally, in the absence of aid (including loans and grants), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a negative effect; however, when there is high investment in both the BRI and aid, there is a strong alignment with the PRC.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.