Power law decay in model predictability skill
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Authors
Poberezhny, Yuri A.
Ivanov, Leonid M.
Kantha, Lakshmi H.
Melnichenko, Oleg V.
Chu, Peter C.
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Date of Issue
2002
Date
2002
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Abstract
Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf
of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is
found in the mean square error of displacement between
drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth).
The probability density function of the model valid
prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and
broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests longterm
predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the
long-term (extreme long such as 50–60 day) predictability
is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties
as the short-term predictions.
Type
Article
Description
Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 29 (15), 10.1029/2002GLO14891.
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014891
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014891
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Oceanography
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Citation
Chu, P.C., L. Ivanov, L. Kantha, O. Melnichenko, and Y. Poberezhny, 2002: Power law decay in model predictability skill (paper download). Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 29 (15), 10.1029/2002GLO14891.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.