Russia’s Strategic Recalibration After the Ukraine Conflict: Implications for the Two Near-Peer Competitors Strategic Environment
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Authors
Matovski, Aleksandar
Subjects
Russia
China
trilateral strategic competition
integrated deterrence policy
nuclear weapons
European allies
NATO
China
trilateral strategic competition
integrated deterrence policy
nuclear weapons
European allies
NATO
Advisors
Date of Issue
2025-10-23
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This research examines the scope and strategic implications of the growing alignment of Russian and Chinese interests and power since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It also traces the contours of an updated deterrence framework, tailored to contain the aggression of these two increasingly insecure and assertive autocracies. The research consists of four separate studies. The first analyzes the revisions of Russia’s nuclear posture, announced in the fall of 2024, and how these changes might affect Russia’s strategic behavior and the dynamics of the emerging trilateral strategic competition between the United States, Russia and China. The second study explores the Taiwanese perspectives on the conflict in Ukraine, particularly its perceived reflections on cross-strait tensions with China and a possible Chinese aggression against Taiwan. The third study analyzes the state of the Russian military-industrial complex and the implications for Russia’s ability to sustain the war against Ukraine, as well as on its economic dependence on China. The fourth study examines the perspectives of key European allies on deterrence against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the growing competition and antagonism with China.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
N3/N5 - Plans & Strategy
Funding
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
2 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.