Assessment of tropical cyclone structure variability
Loading...
Authors
Stenger, Robert A.
Subjects
Tropical Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Structure
Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Western North Pacifi c Typhoons
Atlantic Hurricanes
H*Wind Analysis
H*Wind Analysis Tool
Ensemble Modelling
Secondary Eyewall Formation
Asymmetric Convection
Land Interaction
Vertical Wind Shear
Tropical Cyclone Structure
Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Western North Pacifi c Typhoons
Atlantic Hurricanes
H*Wind Analysis
H*Wind Analysis Tool
Ensemble Modelling
Secondary Eyewall Formation
Asymmetric Convection
Land Interaction
Vertical Wind Shear
Advisors
Elsberry, Russell L.
Date of Issue
2013-09
Date
Sep-13
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The landfall of large hurricanes in densely populated areas has increased the awareness that tropical cyclone struc-ture plays an important role in the destructive potential of a storm. A unique set of H*Wind analyses of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2003-2005 seasons is studied to better understand the internal and external mechanisms that lead to significant variability in surface wind structure. Secondary eyewall formation, asymmetric convection, land interaction, and environmental vertical wind shear were generally found to be mechanisms for radius of maximum wind increases, intensity decreases, and size of the radius of 34-kt wind increases. Two modes of size changes were documented that may lead to 100 km increases in 12-24 h, or near-zero size changes when a sharper than average outer wind structure profi les are generated. The statistical relationships among the radius of maximum wind, intensity, and outer-core wind structure from this sample may provide perturbed vortex initial conditions for an ensemble model to predict structure changes.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.