Advances in dynamical predictions and modelling of tropical cyclone motion

Abstract

Recent advances in the use of numerical models for dynamical track predictions and modelling of tropical cyclone motion are reviewed. New applications of barotropic models for operational track predictions are described first. Barotropic models continue to be used by researchers to illustrate the importance of the symmetric and asymmetric components of the initial vortex in the model. New numerical techniques such as adaptive grids are shown to be well suited to the tropical cyclone prediction problem. New data assimilation techniques are first being tested with barotropic models in an effort to improve the initial conditions for track predictions. Selected baroclinic models on limited regions are described in terms of numerical characteristics, representations of physical processes and specifications of the initial conditions. Improvements in these operational limited-region models have yielded more accurate track predictions, and the future goals are to predict the tropical cyclone-related precipitation and the trends in the intensity as well. Recent results from research versions of limited-region baroclinic models appear to promise future improvements in all three aspects, and especially in the specifications of the initial conditions.