DISC-O-TIC: A DISCRETE-TIME ANALYTICAL META-MODEL FOR USE IN COMBAT SYSTEMS STUDIES THAT UTILIZE HIGH RESOLUTION SIMULATION MODELS

Abstract

This paper provides various meta-models for extending or extrapolating in time, and varying and enhancing in coverage capability, the 2-day output of a high-resolution simulation model, here specifically but not exclusively, the Army's COSAGE. The modes we propose, generically called DISC-O-TIC, (Discrete-Time Analytical Meta Model) are tailored to employ the discrete-time output of COSAGE and, potentially, many other such models. The model parameters are estimated from data available from a high-resolution simulation model; in the case of COSAGE the killer/victim scoreboards are used. The models are used to compute/estimate, in spread-sheet format, future force sizes and compositions that result from mutual attrition, as well as ammunition expenditures. Meta-model examination can and is shown to reveal apparent anomalies in data. Meta-models that reflect environmental variations and adaptable firing (ATCAL-like) firing rates illustrate those effects for long (8-day) battles.