Developing a Markov Model to be used as a force shaping tool for the Navy Nurse Corps
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Authors
Kinstler, Daniel Paul
Johnson, Raymond W.
Subjects
Markov model
Nurse Corps manpower
Manpower planning
Solver
Overages
Underages
Accession source
Nurse Corps manpower
Manpower planning
Solver
Overages
Underages
Accession source
Advisors
Richter, Anke
Date of Issue
2005-03
Date
March 2005
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
A Markov Model was used to determine the number of nurses the Navy must gain each year in order to maintain desired end strength. Significant characteristics affecting career progression of individuals in the Navy Nurse Corps were identified. The characteristic of primary concern, accession source, was determined to be significant. Markov models were created to identify personnel flow from ENS through LCDR. The models end-strength projections for 2006-2009 were then compared to Nurse Corps targeted end-strengths for this same period. Several scenarios were run to minimize overages and underages in rank distribution. Optimization was achieved by changing both the distribution of accession sources and the distribution of recruited ranks. Optimal distribution of accession source and rank are dependant upon the degree of accepTable deviation from these targets. As stated above we were not able to acquire this information limiting our ability to accurately forecast optimized distribution of accession source or rank. The Markov Model demonstrated that the Nurse Corps current business practices optimize accessions for two year projections. Increasing variation between the current force structure plan and our models projections suggest that greater efficiency could be obtained in the out-years. This Markov Model provides a tool for improving extended forecasts.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xx, 111 p. : col. ill.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.