A surveillance-interdiction model for remote area operations

Abstract

The paper presents a mathematical model of conducting limited scale surveillance-interdiction operations in a remote area environment. The model, which is stochastic in nature, provides CI patrol schedules in such a manner as to minimize the patrol effort expended, subject to various resource and operational constraints established by the local CI commander. Patrol schedules are developed so as to minimize the ability of the insurgent force to accurately predict future CI operational plans. In addition to generating patrol schedules, for a specified patrol plan, the model predicts additional information such as the expected number of active CI patrols at any given time, the expected duration of a CI patrol, as well as an estimate of the insurgent infiltration rate along a given segment of the infiltration route. The model is capable of providing probabilistic statements concerning the adequacy of a specified force level to satisfy the requirements of a given patrol plan.