Military manpower research: How bad is it? How can we make it better?
Authors
Arkes, Jeremy
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2021-04
Date
Publisher
SSRN
Language
Abstract
This report contends that most military-manpower research that aims to estimate causal effects
suffers from flaws that render the research invalid. I discuss the objectives and ethics of
research, and I give a low-math quick guide to the main pitfalls of research, While I do not test
the claim that most manpower research is flawed, I show that several relatively prominent
examples of manpower research turns out to be invalid, using the pitfalls I describe. This
includes some of my own prior research. I end with recommendations on how to improve the
research process for the Department of Defense, which includes: requiring training of researchers
(beyond what graduate school taught and which could have helped me avoid my research
mistakes), having review panels assess a proposed study’s methods before funding is granted,
reviewing incentives at research organizations to ensure they promote high-quality research,
improving quality control at research organizations, and periodically reviewing the quality of an
organization’s research.
Type
Preprint
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
46 p.
Citation
Arkes, Jeremy. "Military manpower research: How bad is it? How can we make it better." (2021).
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.