Economy over security: why crises fail to impact economic behavior in East Asia
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Authors
Sipos, Aaron R.
Subjects
Japan
South Korea
China
ASEAN
United States
trade
exports
strategic goods
dual hedge
mercantile realism
South Korea
China
ASEAN
United States
trade
exports
strategic goods
dual hedge
mercantile realism
Advisors
Glosny, Michael
Date of Issue
2017-12
Date
Dec-17
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This study examines changes in economic behavior in East Asia following various periods of political crisis with China and explains these patterns through the lens of mercantile realism and dual hedge theories. Japan and South Korea have drastically increased their trade with China, a potential security adversary, at the cost of trade with the United States, a long-time security partner. Analysis of export trends from Japan and South Korea indicates that these countries do not take economic action to distance themselves from China in favor of the United States or Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) following a crisis. Export data also indicates that Japan and South Korea continue to trade strategically important goods like steel and petroleum to China, despite the fact that these goods have a greater potential to affect regional security. Finally, this study highlights how Japan's economic weakness and South Korea's economic integration severely hamper any future prospect to use economic pressure to influence Beijing's security decisions.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.