What to do next? The case for non-predictive strategy
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Authors
Wiltbank, Robert
Dew, Nicholas
Read, Stuart
Sarasvathy, Saras D.
Subjects
strategy making
uncertainty
decision-making
market creation
construction
effectuation
uncertainty
decision-making
market creation
construction
effectuation
Advisors
Date of Issue
2006
Date
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Abstract
Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations:
planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role
of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making owing to
the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the
independence of prediction and control. This implies that the pursuit of successful outcomes can
occur through control-oriented approaches that may essentially be non-predictive. We further
develop and highlight control-oriented approaches with particular emphasis on the question of
what organizations should do next. We also explore how these approaches may impact the costs
and risks of firm strategies as well as the firm’s continual efforts to innovate.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.555
Series/Report No
Department
Graduate School of Business & Public Policy (GSBPP)
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Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.