Modeling and Simulation Tool to Enhance and Explore the ROE Design Space for NLW

Abstract

The goal of this multi-year effect is to define an analytical tool (WRENCH) that will support operational planners and ground commanders in defining contextually appropriate and effective rule-of-engagements (ROEs) for the use of non-lethal weapons against potentially hostile crowds. WRENCH is a multi-scale multi-agent-based model of the dynamic structure and behavior of a crowd in active response to conditions and events in its environment, including those enacted by the engaging security forces. WRENCH importantly models the emotional responses (including fear and anger) of the crowd in response to the behavior of the security forces; with a special emphasis on the monitoring of security force actions that might represent the use of ‘excessive force’. Shared convictions of ‘excessive force’ have multiple influences on crowd behavior as modeled by WRENCH including: 1) the crowd’s willingness to continue engaging; 2) changes in the crowd’s hierarchically structured constituent social identities, and; 3) the crowd’s perception(s) and the persistency of those perceptions of security force legitimacy (or the lack thereof). The ultimate goal of WRENCH is to aid, DoD crowd engagement planners, in defining a suite of ROEs that will accomplish the immediate tactical objective(s) while minimizing the loss of security force and host-nation legitimacy. This report summarizes recent developments in 1) the design of the crucial WRENCH social identity dynamics modeling component, as well as developments in: 2) the modeling of the influence, on crowd behavior, of messaging-based engagements; 3) the inclusion, within WRENCH’s core crowd behavior modeling capabilities, of a capacity to model shared goal-oriented behavior; and 4) an assessment of the impact, on the existing WRENCH design, of including a model of advanced crowd sensing/sensor capabilities.