Systematic analysis of complex dynamic systems : the case of the USS Vincennes
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Authors
Dotterway, Kristen Ann
Subjects
Command and control
C2
Cybernetics
Organizational Learning
Vincennes Incident
Complex Dynamic Systems
Negative/Postive Feedback
Systems Analysis
Garbage Can Model
Mutual Causality
Wholistic Approach to Change
Desicion Making
Ambiguity
C2
Cybernetics
Organizational Learning
Vincennes Incident
Complex Dynamic Systems
Negative/Postive Feedback
Systems Analysis
Garbage Can Model
Mutual Causality
Wholistic Approach to Change
Desicion Making
Ambiguity
Advisors
Roberts, Nancy C.
Tulloch, Allan W.
Date of Issue
1992-06
Date
1992-Jun
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Recent studies on the Vincennes incident have centered around the impact of stress in decision making. This thesis, which is a case analysis of a historical event, offers another perspective through the use of organizational and contextual factors as a means to ascertain what happened when the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655. Data extracted from the unclassified investigation report by Rear Admiral William M. Fogarty and the transcripts from the Senate Hearing before the Committee on Armed Services were analyzed quantitatively, through regression and correlation analysis in conjunction with a graphical analysis and interpretation, in an effort to resolve the lack of reconciliation between system and recollected data by witnesses. A comparative analysis was also conducted between these archival sources of data and interview data from Captain Will Rogers, 111, former Commanding Officer of the Vincennes. Additionally, to identify causal factors that led to the outcome, further analysis using the Events Path Model, Dynamic Systems Model, and Cybernetic Model of Mutual Causality was conducted. The findings of the quantitative analysis portion supports Captain Rogers' argument, which included a track number issue and the existence of another aircraft.... Command and Control, C2, Cybernetics, Organizational Learning, Vincennes Incident, Complex Dynamic Systems, Negative/Positive Feedback, Systems Analysis, Garbage Can Model, Mutual Causality, Wholistic Approach to Change, Decision Making, Ambiguity.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Command, Control and Communications (C3) Academic Group
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
244 p.: folded pages;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.