When is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?

Thumbnail Image
Files
Cox_Brown_Pollock.pdf (60.17 KB)
Authors
Brown, Gerald G.
Cox, Louis Anthony
Pollock, Stephen
Subjects
risk analysis; decision analysis; uncertainty analysis; expert elicitation; probability; uncertainty characterization
Advisors
Date of Issue
2008
Date
2008
Publisher
Language
Abstract
In areas of risk assessment ranging from terrorism to health, safety, and the environment, authoritative guidance urges risk analysis to quantify and display their uncertainties about inputs that significantly affect the results of an analysis, including their uncertainties about subjective probabilities of events. Such "uncertainty characterization" is said to be an important part of fully and honestly informing decision makers about the estimates and uncertainties in analyses that support policy recommendations, enabling them to make better decisions. But is it? Characterization of uncertainties about probabilities often carries zero value of information and accomplishes nothing to improve risk-management decisions. Uncertainties about consequence probabilities are not worth characterizing when final actions must be taken based on information available now.
Type
Article
Description
Interfaces, 38, pp. 465-468.
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0397
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/38109
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Brown, G., Cox, L., and Pollock, S., 2008, “When is Uncertainty About Uncertainty Worth Characterizing?” Interfaces, 38, pp. 465-468.
Distribution Statement
Rights
defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Collections
Publications