Short-term planning and forecasting for petroleum

Abstract

The Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) has, in recent past, been unable to adequately forecast for short-term petroleum requirements. This has resulted in inaccurate replenishment quantities and required short notice corrections which interrupted planned resupply methods. The relationship between the annual CINCLANTFLT DFM budget and sales from the the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point (DFSP) is developed and the past sales data from the Norfolk DFSP is used to construct seasonality indices. Finally, the budget/sales relationship is combined with the seasonality indices to provide a new forecasting model. This model is then compared with the current one for FY-88 monthly forecasts. The comparison suggests that the new model can provide accurate, timely requirements data and improve resupply of the Norfolk Defense Fuel Support Point.