Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Northwest Pacific Ocean
Loading...
Authors
Marino, David R.
Subjects
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
Ensemble Prediction Systems
Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts
Ensemble Prediction Systems
Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts
Advisors
Harr, Patrick A.
Date of Issue
2012-09
Date
Sep-12
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The skill of three ensemble prediction systems (EPS) is evaluated to focus on tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting over the North Pacific. Probability ellipses are defined to represent ensemble spread and encompass 68 per cent of the ensemble members. The ellipses are centered on the ensemble mean forecast position. Forecast reliability is defined as whether the verifying position is within the ellipse 68 per cent of the time. A statistical analysis of uncertainty in TC track forecasts examines the attributes of reliability and resolution of each EPS. The European Center for Medium- Range Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS had the highest degree of reliability and resolution. The sizes and shapes of the EPS ellipses varied with TC track characteristics. This suggests that EPS-based probability ellipses may provide value in identifying uncertainty with respect to likely TC track forecast errors.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Oceanography
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.